One of the harsh realities for conservatives these days is that the only true guarantee of your rights is deep pockets and a good attorney. With the direction things are heading, that’s even truer today than when I wrote this post one year ago.
Indeed, I think the Masterpiece Cakeshop guy got sued again, but at this point, I’m not even sure. There are endless combinations of protected and preferred identities at this point, so I’m sure refusing to bake a cake for a Wookie Life Day banquet will result in fines from the Colorado Civil Rights Commission.
“New Hampshire Results & Analysis” – In this post, I looked at the results from New Hampshire. Bernie Sanders doing pretty well at this point, even with the results of the Iowa caucuses still unclear. At that time, I wrote that “South Carolina’s is Biden’s to lose,” and I was right (see below). One thing that caught my eye: Tom Steyer suspended his campaign after NH, but still took third in SC. How much better would he have fared had he not announced the suspension and hung in there through SC? The outcome likely wouldn’t have been too different, but imagine if Steyer had seized second instead of third? The complexion of the last few weeks could have been quite different.
“Nevada Feels the Bern” – The Nevada caucuses really marked Bernie’s rise to dominance, albeit short-lived. Most of this post I spend analyzing the danger of a Sanders nomination and potential presidency. But then….
“Biden Blowout in South Carolina” – Biden destroyed his competition in South Carolina. As I had predicted, black Americans were not going to vote for Buttigieg, and seemed skeptical of The Bern. And Joe Biden is Obama’s heir-apparent, so he was bound to do well with Obama’s biggest supporters.
“Super Tuesday Results” – If South Carolina weren’t enough, Biden decisively dominated the Super Tuesday primaries, as he did this past Tuesday. Bernie is hanging in there, but his path to victory is narrowing. I’m still holding out hope for a brokered convention, but just as South Carolina was “Biden’s to lose,” at this point, I think the same could be said of the Democratic nomination.
Of course, if Biden gets the nomination, we have to pull out all the stops to defeat him. Bernie is dangerous because of his ideology. Biden is dangerous because he’s an empty husk of a man in a rapidly deteriorating mental condition, who will do whatever his Democratic masters demand of him. The erosion of freedoms may be more subtle under a Biden presidency, but they will be there, nonetheless. Don’t succumb to the siren song of “moderation!”
It’s interesting to me how even when a candidate “wins” a State, his opponent can garner delegates, unlike the “winner-take-all” approach of the Electoral College (with the exceptions of Maine and Nebraska, where candidates can win electoral votes for winning majorities in individual congressional districts, even if they don’t win the majority of votes in the State). That helps the second-place finisher stay in the race, but the reporting—“Biden wins Michigan!“—plant the suggestion that Bernie is toast.
Well, perception is—or tends to be—reality, and the media is all-in for Biden. Since his blowout victories in South Carolina and on Super Tuesday, I’m increasingly convinced that Biden will win the nomination outright. The prospects of a brokered Democratic National Convention—They Will be Done!—seems increasingly remote.
The last week saw some major momentum for Joe Biden, as he smashed through big chunks of the Super Tuesday primaries. Then his most logical competitors, one by one, dropped out, no doubt after receiving some threatening phone calls from the DNC. That’s narrowed the field, essentially, to Biden and Bernie, with Congressbabe Tulsi Gabbard out there with some Somoan delegates and a dream of a debate appearance.
What seemed so unlikely even ten days ago—but was the conventional wisdom last summer—now seems plausible: Biden, possibly struggling with dementia, is on track to become the Democratic nominee for the presidency. There’s still a chance for a brokered convention, which would no-doubt devolve into chaos as angry Bernie Bros watched their doddering hero stripped of any chance at the nomination, but the safe bet at this point seems to be a narrow Biden win.
It’s a good reminder that these primaries can be incredibly unpredictable, but also that the establishment choice usually wins. I remember the 2012 Republican primaries, in which, week after week, one of the second-tier candidates would take the lead, only to fall behind or get knocked out of the race. Romney was the presumed front-runner, even though he was second in most of the polls, but none of the other candidates could stay out in the lead for long. It finally came down to Rick Santorum to offer some kind of alternative to Romney, and he, too, fell.
It’s why so many of us were dismayed when the media was trumpeting JEB! Bush as the Republican front-runner in early 2015. I was Trump-skeptical in those days (how wrong I was), but the thought of another Bush, even a capable one (JEB! was a great governor in Florida), getting the nomination was disheartening. Fortunately, Trump upended everything like a bull in a gold-plated hotel china shop.
Trump’s nomination now seems like an historical aberration—one for which I am extremely thankful. I’m hoping it’s the start of a new trend of populist firebrands (at least on the Republican side), but the circling of the DNC wagons around Biden suggests that the elites are still running the show, at least on that side of the political spectrum. Republicans do seem to listen to their base a bit more—sometimes.
Regardless, I thought it would be interesting to look back at some posts regarding the Democratic primaries to see some of the figures that rose and fell during the process. I’ll continue this review of recent history next Sunday.
“Box Wine Aunties for Williamson” – a social media savvy, New Age-y guru, Marianne Williamson was all the talk in the early days of the Democratic debates. That was during the point when the party, chastened by claims of a rigged primary season in 2016, was letting everyone and their brother get on television if they had enough small-ball donations. Thus, Williamson became an Internet sensation. In reading back through that post, my analysis relies a great deal on symbolism, which is increasingly important in an age in which memes and images convey complex meanings. Buuuuut the moon-bat dropped out.
“The Collapse of the Obama Coalition?” – The identity-politics-obsessed Left now bemoans the fact that the Democratic primaries are down to two old white dudes. It turns out there are many Democrats that don’t care about identity politics, but in 2019 the candidate I most feared was Senator Kamala Harris, the concubine-turned-prosecutor-turned-pandering-politico who seemed to check off all the intersectional boxes. She was a woman, black(ish), exotic—like Obama. If anyone could revive the frayed Obama coalition of the “marginalized,” it would be her. Of course, her inauthentic pandering to blacks was so transparent, they rejected her out-of-hand. Turns out black folks don’t like a half-Jamaican prosecutor who pretends to know about African-American culture and who spent her career locking them up.
“Iowa Caucuses: Disaster on the Prairie” – The Democrats love to sell themselves as do-gooding technocrats who “know how to get things done” (I’m pretty sure Elizabeth Warren has said that, with all the earnestness of every girl who cried over making a 98 on a quiz, constantly over the past year). Yet they botched the much-watched Iowa caucuses in spectacular fashion, using suspect technology with close ties to some of the candidates to calculate the results. Sometimes good old pencil and paper really are the way to go. Of course, that muddying of the waters screwed up the momentum for both the Bernie and the Buttigieg camps, and may have had downstream effects on both campaigns.
That’s it for this (unintentionally long) Lazy Sunday. Part II of this retrospective will be next week.
Biden is being propped up by the establishment wing of the Democratic Party. Amy “The Teacher’s Pet” Klobuchar and “Mayor Pete” Buttigieg both suspended their campaigns after Biden’s big win in South Carolina. Based on his performance in South Carolina, I figured that black voters were behind him thanks to his role as Obama’s VP. Sanders has struggled with black voters (who, in addition to not liking homosexuals, also don’t seem to care for elderly Jewish socialists).
Now Bloomberg has dropped out, too, and thrown his support to Biden. I called this one right as well: he was a red herring all along. Elizabeth Warren, who seems to reevaluating her pledge to “take it to the convention,” effectively destroyed him in the Nevada debates. It also puts to bed the notion that the presidency can be bought (at least at this point). Maybe if Biden had stumbled in SC (and Bloomberg had stayed out of the Nevada debate), Bloomy could have filled the vacuum of the Democratic “center,” but I doubt it.
The Democratic primaries continue to get more interesting. First, Buttigieg surprised analysts with a near-victory in Iowa (in fact, I’m still unclear who actually “won” the caucuses there). Elizabeth Warren took down Bloomberg on the eve of the Nevada caucuses, herself going down in flames in South Carolina.
There’s an echo there of former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie taking down a robotic Marco Rubio in the debate just before the 2016 New Hampshire primaries. Christie had no chance of winning after New Hampshire, but he took Rubio down with him, exposing the would-be poster boy of the Republican Party as an overly-polished puppet. Similarly, Warren’s aggressive attacks on Bloomberg was the screeching harpies way of clawing Bloomberg down with her.
Of course, unlike Rubio, Bloomberg has billions of dollars at his disposal, and has pledged to keep spending big. That adds an interesting wrinkle, but I’ve held that Bloomberg is a very flashy red herring, and I’m not convinced he can buy primary victories. Super Tuesday will tell us a great deal, but I think the only winner from Bloomberg’s campaign will be television networks and social media outlets making a bundle from ad sales. I would love to get the commission on a Bloomberg ad buy.
Joe Biden appears to be in second place, somewhat surprisingly, with l’il Pete Buttigieg in third. That’s going to make South Carolina a big showdown between Sanders and Biden. Biden is banking on blacks in South Carolina to buoy his flailing campaign. Buttigieg will likely flame out (no pun intended) in SC, and the rest of the South, because of those same voters—blacks do not like homosexuality.
All that said, Bernie appears to be in the driver’s seat. While folks are predicting Trump will mop the floor with the ancient socialist, a Sanders nomination is a very dangerous development.
With two competitions under their belts, the Democratic field is narrowing out rapidly. Andrew Yang, the pro-math, pro-universal basic income candidate, dropped out early in the evening. Joe Biden slunk away to South Carolina, where he will make his stand. Elizabeth Warren, the shrill cat lady in the race, was fairly drubbed.
Amy Klobuchar, the slightly-less shrill, younger cat lady with a fiery temper, managed to come in third, putting her one delegate behind Warren and one delegate ahead of Biden.
But Buttigieg’s alleged “moderation” is a lie. On the issues, he’s far to the Left on many issues. Granted, that’s the overall trend in the Democratic Party, as everyone has had to embrace increasingly Leftist positions to remain electable in the activist-heavy primaries. Indeed, there’s no such thing as “conservative” Democrat anymore; such a creature is just a Republican who hasn’t taken the leap yet, for whatever reason.
Of course, this brings up a question: what exactly is political moderation? And a sub-question: does such a thing even exist?