New Hampshire Results & Analysis

What a night!  The Democrats in New Hampshire at least know how to run an election.  Those early write-in votes for Bloomberg were red herrings; instead, the old-school red ran away with the most votes and delegates from New Hampshire, with his twinky acolyte nipping at his heels.  Pete Buttigieg still leads Senator Sanders by one delegate thanks to his performance in Iowa (and the possibility of insider rigging).

With two competitions under their belts, the Democratic field is narrowing out rapidly.  Andrew Yang, the pro-math, pro-universal basic income candidate, dropped out early in the evening.  Joe Biden slunk away to South Carolina, where he will make his stand.  Elizabeth Warren, the shrill cat lady in the race, was fairly drubbed.

Amy Klobuchar, the slightly-less shrill, younger cat lady with a fiery temper, managed to come in third, putting her one delegate behind Warren and one delegate ahead of Biden.

Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Sanders are going to struggle in South Carolina, although Sanders perhaps a bit less than others.  We have open primaries here in SC, and Republicans here are encouraging conservatives to vote for Sanders, reasoning that he’s the easiest prey for Trump to pick off in November.  I don’t know if I can bring myself to vote for any Democrat, much less a self-identified socialist.  At best I might could vote for Congressbabe Tulsi Gabbard, the least terrible of them all (and the best looking), but even that would weigh heavily on my soul.

Regardless, we’ll see how much a spoiler Republicans could be.  I suspect not much of one.  Sanders struggles with black voters.  He comes from a lily-white State, Vermont, and he’s an old Jewish socialist.  Blacks don’t much care for members of the Tribe (unless it’s A Tribe Called Quest).  The young, true-believer progressives here—black, white, or otherwise—will probably vote for Sanders, but they’re a (thankfully) small contingent outside of the cities and college towns.

Black Democrats definitely aren’t going to vote for Buttigieg.  An openly gay white boy from Indiana?  Gimme a break.  Similarly, Klobuchar will struggle with that demographic for the same reason Hillary Clinton did.

That’s why Biden is hopeful he can inject some life into his failing campaign in SC.  He’s really playing up the angle that he’s Obama’s successor, which he can plausibly claim as he was Obama’s VP.  Now that the telegenic mulattoes are out of the race, Obama might be willing to endorse—finally—Biden.  Indeed, the DNC may call on him to do so after Sanders’s win last night.

Bloomberg is still floating around there, menacingly, but, again, I think he’s likely a paper tiger.  Plus, he’s not on the ballot in SC.  My buddy Tom Steyer suspended his campaign last night, and he was aggressively courting black voters in his ads.  Every YouTube ad of his that I’ve seen lately—and they come up constantly—featured one of three scenarios:

1.) A curly-haired black lady and an ethnically-ambiguous-but-black-ish lady earnestly saying that they “think he can beat Trump.”

2.) An overtly black woman saying, “I’m putting in the air”—a magical incantation, I suppose—“he’s going to win South Carolina.”  She also fawningly related how he got “choked up” (gay) about his day in South Carolina, and how he talked about “equality” and “African-Americans.”  She doesn’t mention anything specific about those points; she was just thrilled he talked about “equality” and “African-Americans.”

3.) A former South Carolina State Representative, a nerdy black man, campaigning with Steyer, and Steyer hugging the man in a kind of noogie headlock.

We’ll see what transpires, but it looks like South Carolina’s is Biden’s to lose.  But he’s been phenomenally good at losing so far.  If he does win SC, it’s going to increase the likelihood of a brokered convention that much more.

All I know is, the Democratic primaries are finally interesting.  After months of boring, unwatchable debates and lots of moral preening, we’re now getting into a bunch of unpredictable primary battles.  We’re already two in, and there’s not an apparent front-runner (yes, Buttigieg is ahead by one delegate, with Bernie right behind; that doesn’t mean anything—yet).

Or Sanders could end up walking away with this whole thing, especially if he wins SC.  I will be really surprised if Buttigieg does well here, outside of a handful of lifestyle/limousine liberals in Charleston and some tonier districts.

Who knows!  On to South Carolina and Nevada!

14 thoughts on “New Hampshire Results & Analysis

  1. Back in 2016 I was speaking with some left-leaning true-blue liberal Christians (I was singing in a Unitarian choir) about politics and they were cheerfully bemused about how Trump was tearing a big hole in the Republican primaries. I said that if it wasn’t for Trump sucking all the air out of the primaries we would be talking about the implosion of the Democrat party. They were shocked. No, they said, the Democrats are doing fine. Those guys now post Trump hate all over Facebook.
    Fast forward a few years and now Sanders is playing the Trump role. I think he is going to be the nominee whether the Dems like it or not. He will lose, but only because he doesn’t really want to be President and lacks a killer instinct. If he were a Chaves-like figure he’d be much more popular and dangerous. So, four more years for the Orange Man.
    After that, who knows. Perhaps the Deluge.

    Liked by 3 people

    • Yeah, I think he has the potential to be a spoiler, but at this point, I’m just not seeing it. He’s banking on Super Tuesday cutting his way. Steyer was spending tons of cash on advertising, and it hasn’t seemed to help him. Having rich friends doesn’t always translate to electoral victory. Clinton had the largest warchest in presidential campaign history, and she was still felled by GEOTUS.

      Liked by 2 people

    • Well, I heard on the radio this morning that Bloomberg now has a roughly 30-33% chance of winning the nomination. Not sure how that estimation was reached, but it’s interesting. I still can’t help but think that the same media cabal that was plumping Biden as the “frontrunner” for the past year aren’t just now trying to throw coverage to Bloomberg in an attempt to hoodwink us into thinking he has more support—and more of a chance—than he really does.

      I think SC and NV will tell us much more. Or maybe not, and Bloomberg’s Super Tuesday strategy will shock us all.

      Like

  2. No insight from me whatsoever on the Dims. None, not one, is rational, neither is the campaign, any of them. A bit more interesting than the last forever of it though.

    The real story out of New Hampshire is Trump’s turnout, all but doubling anything in living memory while running opposed. It looks like his voters are pretty committed and willing to send a message.

    Liked by 1 person

    • A keen insight, NEO—we often attribute rationality to them, when often none exists. They’re like the Joker in the Christopher Nolan _Batman_ films: they just want to watch the world burn (and even THAT might be attributing to them too much rationality).

      Thanks for pointing out Trump’s turnout in NH. I did notice pretty large numbers for him, but didn’t think much of its significance.

      Liked by 1 person

      • That’s the problem, even if we understood what they want, we wouldn’t understand why they want it. Well, the main thing we have to understand is how to defeat them.

        I’m not sure I would have bothered, not like my vote would make a difference 🙂

        Liked by 1 person

      • Yeah, same. I’m debating whether or not I should go out and vote in the Democratic primaries here in SC at the end of the month. I don’t want to risk my “hard R” classification in the GOP database, haha. But I wouldn’t mind showing Tulsi some love (and, barring some unlikely and passionate turns of event, voting for her is the only way to do that). We’ll see.

        Liked by 1 person

      • She’s the only one I’d pull the lever for. Seems a decent human being, although a pretty silly leftist, but that Hawaii for ya. Not painful to look at either, unlike the rest of the harpies, who should go back to Macbeth where they belong.

        Liked by 1 person

      • Although not enough to vote for her in a general against a conservative. She’s interesting, must have been quite a soldier, a mustang major by 40 is remarkable.

        Liked by 1 person

  3. […] “New Hampshire Results & Analysis” – In this post, I looked at the results from New Hampshire.  Bernie Sanders doing pretty well at this point, even with the results of the Iowa caucuses still unclear.  At that time, I wrote that “South Carolina’s is Biden’s to lose,” and I was right (see below).  One thing that caught my eye:  Tom Steyer suspended his campaign after NH, but still took third in SC.  How much better would he have fared had he not announced the suspension and hung in there through SC?  The outcome likely wouldn’t have been too different, but imagine if Steyer had seized second instead of third?  The complexion of the last few weeks could have been quite different. […]

    Like

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