“New Hampshire Results & Analysis” – In this post, I looked at the results from New Hampshire. Bernie Sanders doing pretty well at this point, even with the results of the Iowa caucuses still unclear. At that time, I wrote that “South Carolina’s is Biden’s to lose,” and I was right (see below). One thing that caught my eye: Tom Steyer suspended his campaign after NH, but still took third in SC. How much better would he have fared had he not announced the suspension and hung in there through SC? The outcome likely wouldn’t have been too different, but imagine if Steyer had seized second instead of third? The complexion of the last few weeks could have been quite different.
“Nevada Feels the Bern” – The Nevada caucuses really marked Bernie’s rise to dominance, albeit short-lived. Most of this post I spend analyzing the danger of a Sanders nomination and potential presidency. But then….
“Biden Blowout in South Carolina” – Biden destroyed his competition in South Carolina. As I had predicted, black Americans were not going to vote for Buttigieg, and seemed skeptical of The Bern. And Joe Biden is Obama’s heir-apparent, so he was bound to do well with Obama’s biggest supporters.
“Super Tuesday Results” – If South Carolina weren’t enough, Biden decisively dominated the Super Tuesday primaries, as he did this past Tuesday. Bernie is hanging in there, but his path to victory is narrowing. I’m still holding out hope for a brokered convention, but just as South Carolina was “Biden’s to lose,” at this point, I think the same could be said of the Democratic nomination.
Of course, if Biden gets the nomination, we have to pull out all the stops to defeat him. Bernie is dangerous because of his ideology. Biden is dangerous because he’s an empty husk of a man in a rapidly deteriorating mental condition, who will do whatever his Democratic masters demand of him. The erosion of freedoms may be more subtle under a Biden presidency, but they will be there, nonetheless. Don’t succumb to the siren song of “moderation!”
The Democratic primaries continue to get more interesting. First, Buttigieg surprised analysts with a near-victory in Iowa (in fact, I’m still unclear who actually “won” the caucuses there). Elizabeth Warren took down Bloomberg on the eve of the Nevada caucuses, herself going down in flames in South Carolina.
There’s an echo there of former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie taking down a robotic Marco Rubio in the debate just before the 2016 New Hampshire primaries. Christie had no chance of winning after New Hampshire, but he took Rubio down with him, exposing the would-be poster boy of the Republican Party as an overly-polished puppet. Similarly, Warren’s aggressive attacks on Bloomberg was the screeching harpies way of clawing Bloomberg down with her.
Of course, unlike Rubio, Bloomberg has billions of dollars at his disposal, and has pledged to keep spending big. That adds an interesting wrinkle, but I’ve held that Bloomberg is a very flashy red herring, and I’m not convinced he can buy primary victories. Super Tuesday will tell us a great deal, but I think the only winner from Bloomberg’s campaign will be television networks and social media outlets making a bundle from ad sales. I would love to get the commission on a Bloomberg ad buy.
Joe Biden appears to be in second place, somewhat surprisingly, with l’il Pete Buttigieg in third. That’s going to make South Carolina a big showdown between Sanders and Biden. Biden is banking on blacks in South Carolina to buoy his flailing campaign. Buttigieg will likely flame out (no pun intended) in SC, and the rest of the South, because of those same voters—blacks do not like homosexuality.
All that said, Bernie appears to be in the driver’s seat. While folks are predicting Trump will mop the floor with the ancient socialist, a Sanders nomination is a very dangerous development.
After some uncertainty and a great deal of speculation, the results are in: incumbent President Donald Trump has won the Iowa Republican caucuses in a landslide victory reminiscent of a Latin American dictator, clinching 97.1% of caucus-goers’ votes. Honestly, I’m a bit disappointed to see only clinched thirty-nine of the forty available delegates (Bill Weld managed to snag one with his impressive 1.3% vote share).
Oh, wait, you wanted the Democratic caucus results? Geeze, well, I’m afraid I can’t be of much help. Regular readers will note that this post is hitting very late in the day for me, and there’s a reason unrelated to Democratic incompetence (and/or the Party’s attempt to rig the caucuses against Bernie).
After all the anticipation, it’s finally here—the proper beginning of the 2020 presidential election. The Iowa caucuses kick off tonight, and there’s no telling how it’s all going to shake out (although it looks like Bernie is on track to have a good night).
The Iowa caucuses work differently than the primaries in other States. Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day today explains the process succinctly. Essentially, if a candidate does not receive 15% of the votes at a precinct, his or her supporters must recast their votes for one of the remaining candidates. That means that, while a candidate always wants to be a voter’s first choice, being the second choice can still work well. It also makes it possible to see where support will go if a candidate drops out.