On Saturday I wrote a detailed analysis of the 2025 off-cycle elections.  I don’t think they’re quite as dire as everyone makes them out to be—at least, not dire for conservatives’ electoral prospects in 2026.  If you’re living in New York City, the outcome is pretty bad.

Regular reader and contributor Ponty asked me my thoughts about the election of Zohran Mamdani, the Socialist Islamic Mayor-Elect of New York City.  He voiced a view he and I have both seen circulating:  the disbelief that New York City could elect an openly Muslim mayor a mere twenty-four years after 9/11.

I offered up my “back-of-the-envelope analysis” for him, which I’m reproducing here today.

I boiled down Mamdani’s election to five factors (and I am sure there are more):  massive immigration, identity politics, socialism’s current appeal, Americans’ short memories, and large-scale demographic shifts.  Really, it’s little different from why Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez got elected the first time:  she is Hispanic in a district that is overwhelmingly Hispanic and Left-leaning.  That shouldn’t shock us.

With that, here is my take on the Mamdani situation:

Mamdani’s victory is the result of a few factors:

1. Massive immigration to NYC – immigrants voted overwhelmingly for Mamdani.
2. The Progressive Stack Appeal – as a Muslim and a “person of color,” lots of white progressives, as well as plenty of ethnic minorities, were willing to vote for him based on his skin color alone (we saw the same thing in the mayoral race in Lamar, where the black challenger trounced our incumbent mayor, who was an excellent mayor and who worked with people of all races to improve our town).
3. Appeal of Socialism – unfortunately, lots of young people have been indoctrinated through education, the Internet, and their own sense of economic futility into believing that socialism is a viable, even desirable, socioeconomic worldview. That’s especially true in a place like NYC, a haven and hotbed for progressivism.
4. Short Memories – Americans have, sadly, short memories. As I’ve noted in some past posts about 9/11, the commemoration of that tragic day has become an afterthought. As a kid, I remember being acutely aware of 7 December 1941 (the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor), and while it wasn’t like we had huge celebrations, there was a sense that the “day which will live infamy” was important and worth reflection. It was a patriotic observance. 9/11 seems to have lost its staying power; how soon we forget!
5. Massive Demographic Changes – again, this goes back to the immigrant vote. The United States has allowed hordes of people to immigrate; like you are experiencing in Britain, we have often rolled out the red carpet for them, getting them hooked on the welfare state immediately. These folks often come from cultures were socialism or the similar ideologies are celebrated as the birthright of the downtrodden. Some of these cultures have zero concept of self-governance. In essence, it’s the Great Replacement in action.

There is probably also some sense among progressives and immigrants that a Mamdani mayoralty is a middle finger to Trump. Progressives have shown their willingness and eagerness to engage in self-destructive behavior to spite Trump (see also: pregnant women killing themselves and their babies by overdosing on Tylenol after the Trump Administration announced a link between taking Tylenol during pregnancy and increased rates of autism in children).

That’s my back-of-the-envelope analysis. I was not surprised at all that Mamdani won. It was a demographic and statistic inevitability. It’s also a warning to the rest of the nation—and especially our large cities—that we need to get immigration under control—and we need to offer young people opportunity so they don’t turn to these destructive ideologies out of desperation.